New HEMA project to assess approaches for handling uncertainty in economic evaluation

HEMA has launched a new research initiative examining how uncertainty is evaluated, presented, and communicated in economic evaluations, with the aim of supporting more consistent HTA decision-making.

The Baseline

• HEMA’s new research topic will assess approaches to quantifying and communicating uncertainty in economic evaluations used in HTA decision-making.
• The initiative will review both established and emerging methods, with recommendations expected in a final report planned for the first half of 2027.
• The announcement marks HEMA’s second major research topic following publication of its inaugural report on defining appropriate benefits in economic evaluation, which prompted debate across the HTA community.

The Health Economics Methods Advisory (HEMA) has announced a new research initiative focused on approaches to evaluating, presenting, and communicating uncertainty in economic evaluations, with the aim of supporting more consistent health technology assessment (HTA) decision-making across healthcare systems.

The project will assess both established and emerging methods used to quantify uncertainty in economic evaluations and develop recommendations for HTA organizations considering the adoption of healthcare interventions. Preliminary findings and stakeholder consultation activities are expected throughout 2026, with a final report planned for the first half of 2027.

Commenting on the announcement, Mark Sculpher, Chair of the HEMA Working Group said:

“Uncertainties in economic evaluation can come from a range of sources including small sample sizes, limitations in the available evidence and assumptions used in the modeling. There are both established tools and new methods for quantifying these uncertainties; our goal is not only to review those methods, but also to recommend the best ways to use those tools to make better decisions about new medicines.”

The HEMA initiative brings together the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER), and Canada’s Drug Agency (CDA-AMC) to independently examine and assess emerging methods and processes in HTA. The group undertakes one major research topic each year, with topics identified by the Secretariat in consultation with the Steering Committee and informed by feedback from the wider community. The new initiative will be explored by a dedicated HEMA Working Group made up of methodologists, policy experts, and researchers focused on advancing understanding of novel health economic methods and related decision-making processes within the context of HTA.

Commenting on the latest initiative, NICE stated:

“We're pleased to be part of HEMA … as the group announces its latest area of study, focusing on an assessment of approaches to evaluating, presenting, and communicating uncertainty in economic evaluations. This work will provide recommendations to help HTA organizations make better, more consistent decisions about new technologies.”

The new topic marks HEMA’s second major research initiative. Earlier this year, the group published its inaugural report, “Defining Appropriate Benefits for Economic Evaluation of Health Care Technologies,” which explored how broader benefits could be incorporated into economic evaluations used in HTA decision-making. While the report was broadly welcomed as an important contribution to ongoing discussions around value assessment, it also prompted debate across the healthcare policy community, with the US-based health policy research organization, the National Pharmaceutical Council, describing it as “a missed opportunity for comprehensive value assessment.”